Public market commentary and macro narrative review. Strong views, no private holdings or trade instructions.https://rufuszhu.com/en-ushttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-18/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-18/FOMC dot plot median shifts to 3.8% (9/18 members expect hikes) + easing bias completely removed = Warsh completes a rate-expectation paradigm shift in one meeting; combined with US-Iran MoU signing, precious metals and oil face dual selling pressure while AI semiconductors hit new highs.Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-17/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-17/EIA commercial crude draw of -8.26M bbl (9th consecutive week) plus SPR single-week depletion of -8.94M bbl confirm physical shortage coexists with the MoU signing; FOMC 2PM ET Warsh's first decision pending; AI semis SMH +3.2% vs traditional Megacap AMZN RSI 23 divergence intensifies.Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-16/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-16/The Bank of Japan raises rates to the highest since 1995 at 1.0%, yet USD/JPY holds at 160.39 — the market judges the carry spread still sufficient. Oil crashes another -5.7% to RSI 31 technical oversold territory as the MoU e-signature is confirmed, but Hormuz physical recovery sits at only 5%.Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-15/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-15/Oil crashed 12% in five days after the US-Iran deal announcement, but Hormuz physical transit recovered to just 1 LNG tanker; Gold +3.3% rallying against the deal narrative reveals markets simultaneously pricing peace and fiat debasement.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-12/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-12/Trump pivoted within 24 hours from threatening to seize Kharg Island to previewing a Geneva MoU signing. Oil is down 6.5% over 5 days pricing peace — but PPI hit +6.5% YoY, the highest since November 2022, revealing that war-driven inflation is now embedded in supply chains. A signature is not a repair.Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-11/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-11/IRGC declares Hormuz fully closed, US launches overnight mass strikes on Iranian soil, Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island oil infrastructure — war rhetoric pivots from negotiation-plus-blockade to resource appropriation; ECB's first rate hike in three years confirms war-driven inflation has gone global.Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-10/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-10/Iran's IRGC expands strikes to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan for the first time, zeroing out Trump's '2-3 days to deal' credibility; Core CPI at +0.2% MoM undercuts expectations giving a brief dovish window, but EIA crude draws accelerate for a third straight week with Cushing nearing operational floor, as the physical crunch window collides with BOJ/FOMC decision week.Wed, 10 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-09/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-09/Crude plunges 5.2% on Trump's latest peace promise, but EIA STEO same-day formally assumes Hormuz closed through Q3 with inventories depleting at 6-7M bpd; Pentagon 1260H list adds Alibaba, BYD among 188 military-linked firms triggering fresh tech decoupling repricing, ARM -10.67% leads semis lower.Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-08/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-08/Iran and Israel fire ballistic missiles at each other for the first time since April ceasefire, then both announce pause; Iran's ambassador to Russia declares Hormuz will reopen but with $1.5-2M/vessel fee, directly clashing with US 'no fee' stance; Nikkei -3.8% pricing BOJ + Middle East risk; SMH +5.8% technical rebound with Intel catalyst.Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-05/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-05/May NFP at 172K crushes 80K consensus with +93K revisions, pushing Dec Fed hike odds to 68.4%; SMH suffers -6.2% systemic selloff; BTC RSI 11.67 hits 2026 absolute low; White House Situation Room meeting on Iran ends without deal announcement.Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-04/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-04/Broadcom's marginal revenue miss triggers -14% selloff exposing AI sector fragility after extreme overbought conditions; US-Iran Hormuz deal draft awaits Trump signature + initial claims surge to 4-month high of 225K showing first cracks in labor market; Bloomberg confirms BOJ set to hike 6/16 with another increase possible in 2026; BTC RSI 12.05 sets new 2026 historical extreme.Thu, 04 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-03/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-03/Iranian missiles hit Kuwait International Airport Terminal 1 causing 1 death and 60+ injuries — the first physical damage to Gulf civilian infrastructure on Day 96. EIA crude draw of -8M barrels doubled expectations confirming accelerating physical shortage. BOJ's Ueda delivers most hawkish signal yet, locking in June 16 rate hike to 1.0%. BTC RSI 14.1 reaches most extreme oversold reading in 2026.Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-02/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-02/Alphabet announces $800B equity raise including a $10B Berkshire private placement, signaling a new intensity in the Hyperscaler capex race. Jensen Huang publicly names Marvell as the next trillion-dollar company at Computex, MRVL +23% premarket. JOLTS blows past expectations + ISM PMI 54 confirms Stagflation is deepening. BTC RSI 19 enters 2026's most extreme oversold territory.Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-01/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-06-01/Iran announces suspension of all dialogue on 6/1 and threatens full Hormuz blockade; Oil surges +7% unwinding 5 days of peace discount. Same day NVIDIA GTC Taipei launches RTX Spark, ARM +18% confirms AI ecosystem diffusion entering a new phase.Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-29/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-29/Trump in the Situation Room making his 'final determination' on the Iran MoU while Vance says 'very close but not there yet' — Oil down 9% in 5 days pricing in a deal that hasn't materialized physically as Hormuz commercial traffic hits near-zero Thursday morning; DELL +28% confirms AI infrastructure demand is orders, not expectations.Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-28/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-28/PCE hits highest since May 2023 + Q1 GDP revised down to 1.6% = stagflation officially lands in hard data; IRGC fires ballistic missile at Kuwait on the same day Axios reports MoU text is ready for Trump's signature — the parallel tracks of peace narrative and military escalation enter Day 90.Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-27/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-27/Iran state TV publishes 14-clause MoU draft framework; White House calls it fabrication — Oil drops to $90 but Gold RSI 23 hits extreme oversold territory, exposing the contradiction between peace narrative crushing Hard Assets and Carry Trade imbalances reaching historic extremes.Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-26/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-26/CENTCOM self-defense strikes on southern Iran shatter the MoU 95% narrative — Oil bounces from a 5D -12.5% plunge as ceasefire credibility erodes; MU surges +16% on UBS's $1,625 target, pushing semiconductors to all-time highs in complete decoupling from geopolitics.Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-25/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-25/US-Iran MoU framework 95% complete and Oil down 11% in 5 days pricing Hormuz reopening, yet physical transit remains IRGC-permitted 33 ships/day (vs 138 pre-war) -- markets are paying a deposit on a deal that doesn't exist.Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-22/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-22/UMich consumer sentiment at 44.8 marks the lowest reading since the survey began in 1952; 5-year inflation expectations spike to 3.9% (30-year high) confirming Stagflation is no longer theoretical. Warsh takes the Fed chair with no viable policy path.Fri, 22 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-21/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-21/AI Supercycle structurally confirmed yet market pricing power migrates down the value chain to supply chain and edge; Oil +3.5% same-day reversal confirms geophysical reality is immune to single-day headlines.Thu, 21 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-20/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-20/Oil -5.1% back to $98.83 and ARM +15.5% / SMH +3.4% extreme divergence is not a directional contradiction but a pre-NVDA risk reallocation; SPR -9.9M single-week record draw exposes accelerating physical depletion.Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-19/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-19/US 30Y rises to 5.18%, highest since 2007. JGB 30Y hits an all-time high of 4.0%. Global Bond Vigilantes are simultaneously breaching every line of defense.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-18/https://rufuszhu.com/en/daily/2026-05-18/Iran formalizes the Hormuz Toll into a state institution, Japan's ultra-long bonds hit 1990s highs, and global fiscal dominance is deteriorating in sync.Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT