Essays by Kaiyu — contrarian takes on geopolitics, markets, and AI.https://rufuszhu.com/enhttps://rufuszhu.com/en/oil-forever-changed/https://rufuszhu.com/en/oil-forever-changed/There's never a shortage of oil. Every past oil crisis ended the same way — capacity expanded, prices crashed. This time is different. I'm going to buy more oil stocks, not fewer.Mon, 04 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/us-endgame/https://rufuszhu.com/en/us-endgame/Wall Street priced this war with TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out. The market is right, Trump will TACO again. But this time, he can't spin his way out.Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/iran-yangmou/https://rufuszhu.com/en/iran-yangmou/47 years of sanctions taught Iran one thing: the U.S. needs a result, Iran just needs time. You can't starve someone who's been starving for 47 years.Wed, 29 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/why-no-deal/https://rufuszhu.com/en/why-no-deal/Trump wants a deal. Iran's economy is squeezed. It looks like a high-probability settlement. Game theory says the opposite — whoever signs, loses. Not signing is how you win.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://rufuszhu.com/en/why-us-cant-escalate/https://rufuszhu.com/en/why-us-cant-escalate/On April 20, Trump said he expected to be bombing. Two days later he declared an indefinite ceasefire. The war won't escalate — not because he won't, but because he can't.Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT