Daily Brief

2026

54 public briefs, grouped by month.

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Each month is a compact market log, sorted newest first.

Month July 2026 July 1, 2026 - July 31, 2026 Latest Long-End Yields Rise Again as AI Rewards Delivery 23 briefs Open month Month June 2026 June 1, 2026 - June 30, 2026 Latest USD/JPY Breaks 162 = the Last Straw of a 40-Year Extreme Is Being Weighed — While Oil Analysts Capitulate for the First Time 21 briefs Open month Month May 2026 May 18, 2026 - May 29, 2026 Latest Trump Enters Situation Room as MoU Countdown Meets DELL +28% AI Breakout 10 briefs Open month

Latest Briefs

July 31, 2026

Long-End Yields Rise Again as AI Rewards Delivery

U.S. ECI rose 0.9% for a second straight quarter and consumer sentiment improved while China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2; the 30-year Treasury reached 5.27% intraday and Amazon gained 15.1%, as markets priced both sticky inflation and AI spending that is producing revenue.

ECI (Q2): +0.9% QoQUST 30Y: 5.27%AMZN: +15.1%China Manufacturing PMI: 49.2

July 30, 2026

Inflation Cooled, and the Long End Got More Expensive

Q2 GDP came in at just +1.5%, June core PCE fell to 3.3% and headline PCE posted its first monthly decline in six years — yet 5s, 10s and 30s rose 1.8, 3.7 and 6.3bp and the dollar index broke below 100. The same night, two earnings reports split AI capex into the kind that monetizes and the kind that doesn't.

Core PCE (June): 3.3% YoYUST 30Y: 5.21%USD/JPY: 158.34MSFT / META: +16.6% / -9.4%

July 29, 2026

Three Hawkish Dissents, and a Fed That Won't Act

The FOMC held rates 9-3 with all three dissenters wanting a hike, yet by the close the front end fell, the 30-year rose, the dollar lost 0.5% and gold gained ~1.9% — the hawkishness was in the vote, the dovishness was in the price.

FOMC Vote: 9-3Gold: $4,164WTI Settlement: $84.63EIA Commercial Crude: 404.5M bbl