Daily Brief

2026

24 public briefs, grouped by month.

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Each month is a compact market log, sorted newest first.

Month June 2026 June 1, 2026 - June 18, 2026 Latest Warsh's Hawkish Debut Reshapes Global Rate Expectations as MoU Signing Triggers Cross-Asset Reset 14 briefs Open month Month May 2026 May 18, 2026 - May 29, 2026 Latest Trump Enters Situation Room as MoU Countdown Meets DELL +28% AI Breakout 10 briefs Open month

Latest Briefs

June 18, 2026

Warsh's Hawkish Debut Reshapes Global Rate Expectations as MoU Signing Triggers Cross-Asset Reset

FOMC dot plot median shifts to 3.8% (9/18 members expect hikes) + easing bias completely removed = Warsh completes a rate-expectation paradigm shift in one meeting; combined with US-Iran MoU signing, precious metals and oil face dual selling pressure while AI semiconductors hit new highs.

FOMC Dot: 3.8%Silver: -6.6%Oil 5D: -16.1%USD/JPY: 161.08

June 17, 2026

EIA's 9th Consecutive Draw of -8.26M vs MoU Ink: Physical Shortage Refutes Paper Peace with Hard Data

EIA commercial crude draw of -8.26M bbl (9th consecutive week) plus SPR single-week depletion of -8.94M bbl confirm physical shortage coexists with the MoU signing; FOMC 2PM ET Warsh's first decision pending; AI semis SMH +3.2% vs traditional Megacap AMZN RSI 23 divergence intensifies.

EIA Crude: -8.26M bblSPR: -8.94M bbl/wkARM: +102% 1MAMZN: RSI 23.1

June 16, 2026

BOJ Hikes to 1.0% for First Time in 31 Years — USD/JPY Doesn't Blink

The Bank of Japan raises rates to the highest since 1995 at 1.0%, yet USD/JPY holds at 160.39 — the market judges the carry spread still sufficient. Oil crashes another -5.7% to RSI 31 technical oversold territory as the MoU e-signature is confirmed, but Hormuz physical recovery sits at only 5%.

Oil: $74.95BOJ: 1.0%USD/JPY: 160.39NFLX: RSI 14