North Shore Notes · by Kaiyu
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Daily Brief

Daily Macro Brief

Public news, rates curves, and market data mapped into the macro regimes the market has not fully priced. Strong views, no private holdings or trade instructions.

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Not a news digest. I read the logic behind daily market signals and the story behind every move.

Latest Briefs

June 18, 2026

Warsh's Hawkish Debut Reshapes Global Rate Expectations as MoU Signing Triggers Cross-Asset Reset

FOMC dot plot median shifts to 3.8% (9/18 members expect hikes) + easing bias completely removed = Warsh completes a rate-expectation paradigm shift in one meeting; combined with US-Iran MoU signing, precious metals and oil face dual selling pressure while AI semiconductors hit new highs.

FOMC Dot: 3.8%Silver: -6.6%Oil 5D: -16.1%USD/JPY: 161.08

EIA's 9th Consecutive Draw of -8.26M vs MoU Ink: Physical Shortage Refutes Paper Peace with Hard Data

EIA commercial crude draw of -8.26M bbl (9th consecutive week) plus SPR single-week depletion of -8.94M bbl confirm physical shortage coexists with the MoU signing; FOMC 2PM ET Warsh's first decision pending; AI semis SMH +3.2% vs traditional Megacap AMZN RSI 23 divergence intensifies.

EIA Crude: -8.26M bblSPR: -8.94M bbl/wkARM: +102% 1MAMZN: RSI 23.1

BOJ Hikes to 1.0% for First Time in 31 Years — USD/JPY Doesn't Blink

The Bank of Japan raises rates to the highest since 1995 at 1.0%, yet USD/JPY holds at 160.39 — the market judges the carry spread still sufficient. Oil crashes another -5.7% to RSI 31 technical oversold territory as the MoU e-signature is confirmed, but Hormuz physical recovery sits at only 5%.

Oil: $74.95BOJ: 1.0%USD/JPY: 160.39NFLX: RSI 14

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