Long-form essays · English
A tech lead's macro wager.
I write code by day and run geopolitical war games at night. I use the strongest AI models and my own stubborn thinking to map what the market hasn't priced yet. Every essay is a public bet — come find the holes.
I'll Buy More Oil Stocks When the War Ends
There's never a shortage of oil. Every past oil crisis ended the same way — capacity expanded, prices crashed. This time is different. I'm going to buy more oil stocks, not fewer.
May 4, 2026
Summer Retreat: The U.S.–Iran Endgame
Wall Street priced this war with TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out. The market is right, Trump will TACO again. But this time, he can't spin his way out.
May 1, 2026
Iran's Open Trap
47 years of sanctions taught Iran one thing: the U.S. needs a result, Iran just needs time. You can't starve someone who's been starving for 47 years.
April 29, 2026
No Deal Wins: Why the U.S. and Iran Can't Settle
Trump wants a deal. Iran's economy is squeezed. It looks like a high-probability settlement. Game theory says the opposite — whoever signs, loses. Not signing is how you win.
April 27, 2026
Out of Cards: Why the U.S. Can't Escalate the Iran War
On April 20, Trump said he expected to be bombing. Two days later he declared an indefinite ceasefire. The war won't escalate — not because he won't, but because he can't.
April 23, 2026
