North Shore Notes · by Kaiyu
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Daily Brief

Daily Macro Brief

Public news, rates curves, and market data mapped into the macro regimes the market has not fully priced. Strong views, no private holdings or trade instructions.

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Not a news digest. I read the logic behind daily market signals and the story behind every move.

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July 31, 2026

Long-End Yields Rise Again as AI Rewards Delivery

U.S. ECI rose 0.9% for a second straight quarter and consumer sentiment improved while China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2; the 30-year Treasury reached 5.27% intraday and Amazon gained 15.1%, as markets priced both sticky inflation and AI spending that is producing revenue.

ECI (Q2): +0.9% QoQUST 30Y: 5.27%AMZN: +15.1%China Manufacturing PMI: 49.2

Inflation Cooled, and the Long End Got More Expensive

Q2 GDP came in at just +1.5%, June core PCE fell to 3.3% and headline PCE posted its first monthly decline in six years — yet 5s, 10s and 30s rose 1.8, 3.7 and 6.3bp and the dollar index broke below 100. The same night, two earnings reports split AI capex into the kind that monetizes and the kind that doesn't.

Core PCE (June): 3.3% YoYUST 30Y: 5.21%USD/JPY: 158.34MSFT / META: +16.6% / -9.4%

Three Hawkish Dissents, and a Fed That Won't Act

The FOMC held rates 9-3 with all three dissenters wanting a hike, yet by the close the front end fell, the 30-year rose, the dollar lost 0.5% and gold gained ~1.9% — the hawkishness was in the vote, the dovishness was in the price.

FOMC Vote: 9-3Gold: $4,164WTI Settlement: $84.63EIA Commercial Crude: 404.5M bbl

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