Oil and dollar rise as U.S. stocks soften and AI results meet mixed reactions

News primarily covers the period after September 30 at 11:00:02 ET through October 1 at 11:00:05 ET, supplemented by same-day public market reporting and official Nikkei closing data. U.S. and Canadian equities and other market snapshots were retrieved Thursday between 12:04 and 12:05 ET and are intraday quotes; Japan’s equity session had closed. Retrieval times are not individual trade timestamps, and bitcoin’s one-day change covers a different trading period from equities.

Today’s Market

U.S. equities were slightly lower at midday Thursday as the dollar and crude rose, with chips, power producers and technology platforms moving in different directions. The S&P 500 ETF VOO and Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ each fell 0.2%, while semiconductor ETF SMH gained 0.4%. Micron fell 1.69% and Alphabet 0.99%, while Constellation Energy rose 2.25%. The dollar index gained 0.7% to 102.15, long-duration Treasury ETF TLT rose 0.3%, and the VIX increased to 17.18. Canadian large-cap ETF XIU fell 0.3%. Factory price pressures, energy supply risks and company-specific profit and contract prospects sent different signals; the evidence does not support one macroeconomic explanation for the entire session. VOO, QQQ, SMH, dollar index, TLT, VIX, XIU

The Main Stories

U.S. factories keep expanding as price pressures intensify

The September ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 54.5, slightly below August’s 54.6 and the 55.0 consensus cited in the news coverage, but still above the expansion threshold of 50. The components were more revealing: new orders rose from 53.7 to 55.3, employment from 51.2 to 52.7, and prices paid jumped from 71.1 to 77.9. Demand was not contracting across the board, while input price pressures increased. The 77.9 reading is a survey index, not a 77.9% rise in prices. ISM September report

Employment also showed a combination of low layoffs and weak hiring. Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 in the week ended September 26, down 1,000 from the revised previous week. Challenger reported 43,281 announced job cuts in September, down 18% from August and 20% from a year earlier. Announced hiring plans, however, totaled just 90,787, down 23% year over year and the weakest September since 2011. The Atlanta Fed’s third-quarter GDPNow growth estimate also fell from 5.0% to 3.7%. It is an estimate updated as data arrive, rather than a reported GDP outcome. Claims and layoffs, claims revisions, GDPNow

My reading is that these figures do not establish a sudden collapse in demand or the disappearance of inflation pressure. Higher input prices may squeeze margins or pass through to customers, depending on companies’ pricing power. A stronger dollar alongside a small gain in TLT also falls short of a uniform market expectation of further tightening; TLT’s price cannot substitute for yields across Treasury maturities. Friday’s payroll hiring, wages and revisions should help clarify the pace of labor-market cooling more than any single survey.

Record Micron revenue fails to lift its stock, while Google’s early support fades

After the September 30 close, Micron reported $54.23 billion of revenue for its FY2026 fourth quarter ended September 3, up about 379% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share were $33.42, with an adjusted gross margin of 87.0%. Its FY2027 first-quarter guidance calls for revenue of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $38.15, plus or minus $1. The results provide actual revenue evidence for memory demand; the next-quarter figures remain management forecasts. Micron earnings release

Micron nevertheless projects an adjusted gross margin of about 86.25% next quarter, down 0.75 percentage points. Schwab’s October 1 9:13 a.m. ET report associated its early decline with concerns about capital spending and lower margins. At midday, Micron was still down 1.69%, while Nvidia gained 0.63% and Arm 1.15%. My interpretation is that strong sales can support expectations for upstream demand while investors also assess expansion spending and the durability of margins. Reporting supports that explanation, but does not quantify each factor’s contribution to the decline. Schwab morning analysis, Micron, Nvidia, Arm

Google announced Gemini 4 Argon after the September 30 close and began a phased rollout on October 1. According to launch coverage, the company increased the maximum output per response from about 64,000 to 1 million tokens, roughly sixteenfold, with entry input pricing of $2 per million tokens. Cybersecurity professionals receive initial access through the Fairwind program, followed by paid API customers and Google AI Ultra subscribers. The company claims leading results on 12 of 18 disclosed benchmarks; those are company testing claims, not a direct measure of revenue. Model launch coverage

The announcement accompanied a reported premarket Alphabet gain of about 2.2%, but the tracked GOOG shares were down 0.99% by midday. The early explanation cannot describe the entire day; the available public material does not establish why the direction later changed. Longer outputs may broaden complex-task use, while paid demand, operating costs and safety performance still require evidence. Early stock report, GOOG

Amazon’s nuclear contract supports Constellation while PJM’s delay remains

Constellation and Amazon announced a 20-year power agreement on September 30 covering 690 MW from Maryland’s Calvert Cliffs nuclear plant. About 190 MW is new capacity, expected online between 2030 and 2032. The agreement is expected to support more than $3 billion in infrastructure investment, with the electricity continuing to flow into the PJM grid; the full 690 MW should not be counted as additional generation capacity. The companies also signed a retail electricity agreement supporting Amazon’s operations across PJM’s 13-state region. Agreement details

At midday, Constellation gained 2.25%, Vistra 1.03% and NRG 0.34%, reversing the direction seen in yesterday’s midday snapshots. A long contract improves visibility into a particular plant’s future revenue, but does not resolve the region’s broader procurement obstacles. FERC only partly approved PJM’s reliability backstop proposal: it accepted a $555 per MW-day bid cap but required changes to cost allocation and exit rules, delaying implementation until February 28, 2027. Better company contracts coexist with delays in industry execution; today’s rebound does not establish that the regulatory issues have been resolved. FERC and PJM developments, Constellation, Vistra, NRG

Crude rises amid stalled diplomacy, with reserve deliveries due in November

The midday WTI continuous-futures snapshot was about $92.90 a barrel, up 2.7%. This is the data provider’s continuous-contract quote, not spot oil or an official settlement. Occidental rose 3.31%, Chevron 1.14% and ExxonMobil 0.60%. That was stronger than the early report within the news window showing November WTI at $90.53, up 0.1%. The times and quotation bases differ, so the small early increase does not describe the whole midday picture. WTI continuous futures, early dated-contract report, Occidental, Chevron, ExxonMobil

A TIME interview published October 1 further confirmed that President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz, conditional on lifting the naval blockade and unfreezing Iranian assets. He did not rule out increased bombing after the midterm elections. The interview took place on September 28; publication today is not military action today. U.S. forces completed their withdrawal from Iraq on September 30, with the anti-ISIS task force moving to Jordan and troops remaining in Syria. That withdrawal also does not constitute a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Interview and diplomatic timeline, Iraq withdrawal

Measures to ease supply have a delivery lag. On September 29, the Energy Department announced plans to release up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) through an exchange requiring later repayment in oil. Bids are due October 6 at 11 a.m. CT, with deliveries in November and December. SPR inventories stood at 283.8 million barrels in the week ended September 25. Commercial crude inventories rose about 922,000 barrels, versus an expected decline of about 264,000, while gasoline inventories fell 1.7 million barrels and refinery utilization declined to 92.5%. More commercial crude can coexist with tight fuel inventories and a shrinking strategic reserve. SPR arrangements, EIA data reporting

Reuters sources expect OPEC+ to leave November production targets unchanged at its October 4 meeting; no decision has been announced. Actual August production by seven core producers was about 25 million barrels a day, roughly 5 million below February’s prewar level. Stalled diplomacy provides a risk backdrop, while improving Saudi exports and shipping flows offer countervailing evidence. The available material cannot attribute the entire midday oil gain to one development. Sustained recovery in actual shipments and deliveries remains the next test. OPEC+ preview

Technology drives Japan’s rally despite mixed Tankan results

The Nikkei 225 closed up 3.30% at 68,956.72. Official data show technology contributed about 1,762 points, roughly four-fifths of the total 2,203-point gain. There were 108 advancing constituents and 115 decliners. The Nikkei semiconductor index gained 5.55%, while the JPX-Nikkei 400 rose just 0.63%. The rally was concentrated in technology and index weights rather than spread broadly across Japanese companies. Official Nikkei daily summary, official index quotes

The Bank of Japan’s September Tankan, released the same day, showed large manufacturers’ sentiment rising from +22 to +24, slightly below the +25 consensus. Large nonmanufacturers fell from +37 to +35, also below the expected +36. Large companies across industries plan 11.0% growth in FY2026 capital spending under the measure covering software, research and development, and fixed investment excluding land. Manufacturing and investment remained resilient, while service-sector confidence weakened. In my view, the concentration in technology fits the market evidence better than a claim that the Tankan beat expectations across the board. The official contribution data do not, by themselves, prove that Micron’s results or a particular policy caused the rally. Bank of Japan Tankan

Fertilizer stocks fall while Belarus supply substitution remains a proposal

Mosaic fell 3.20% at midday, Nutrien 1.09% and CF Industries 1.17%. Last week, Trump proposed sourcing cheaper potash from Belarus. Canada currently supplies about 10 million tonnes annually to the United States at zero tariffs. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko responded that almost all his country’s output was already contracted to China; landlocked transport and reliance on rail through Russia are additional constraints. The political proposal has not become a signed and implemented replacement supply agreement. Potash trade dispute, Mosaic, Nutrien, CF Industries

Urea faces different supply and demand conditions. Australian prices have rebounded, with reporting pointing to planting demand, uncertainty over Middle Eastern supply and European natural-gas costs. A potash trade dispute cannot automatically explain nitrogen producers’ performance. Additional checks did not establish a reliable new catalyst for Mosaic’s larger decline, leaving the precise explanation for today’s divergence unresolved. Urea market reporting

Crypto ETFs turn to outflows while bitcoin edges higher

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $148.7 million of net outflows on September 30, ending nine consecutive sessions of inflows totaling $3.1 billion. Ether ETFs lost $59.6 million, their second consecutive outflow day. Bitcoin was about $84,203 at midday, up 0.8% over the provider’s one-day interval, while Strategy and Coinbase gained 2.23% and 0.69%, respectively. Yesterday’s fund subscriptions and redemptions cover a different period from today’s continuously traded cryptocurrency price. A single outflow day also does not overturn the preceding evidence of recovering demand. ETF flows, bitcoin, Strategy, Coinbase

Security incidents remain consequential. PeckShield and CertiK put September hacking losses at roughly $766 million to $768 million, using different incident counts. About 85% of the funds involved in the approximately $318.7 million Liquid Network incident were reportedly recovered the following day, so aggregated incident amounts are not necessarily final unrecovered net losses. Bitget plans to restore its remaining withdrawal services at 08:00 UTC on October 2. Whether services resume on time and how recovered assets are handled will say more about resolution than a day’s price movement. Security incident summary

Also Worth Knowing

• Executives at the September 29 White House lunch signed a voluntary commitment on frontier superintelligence covering model monitoring, internal safety teams and external audits. It is a separate document from the executive order changing federal terminology to “superintelligence” and has no formal legal enforcement mechanism. Confirmed signatories include leaders of Google, Meta, Nvidia, OpenAI, Anthropic and Elon Musk’s companies; Apple did not participate. This supplements previously omitted details of the agreement. Accord reporting, attendance
• The U.S. government entered FY2027 without a shutdown. A continuing appropriations law signed September 2 funds agency operations through December 11; the fiscal-year transition does not permanently settle the funding question. Funding arrangements
• Canada’s September manufacturing PMI fell from 53.0 to 51.5, a six-month low but still an expansion reading. Trade friction and energy costs constrained new orders. XIU’s midday decline is consistent with that backdrop, but its industry mix prevents attributing the entire move to the manufacturing survey. Canadian PMI
• The euro area’s final September manufacturing PMI was 52.9, above the expected 52.7, while August unemployment held at 6.4%. France’s 10-year bond auction yield rose from 4.23% at the previous auction to 4.93%, with bid coverage falling from 2.28 to 2.0. This compares two auctions; it is not a 70-basis-point one-day jump in secondary-market yields. Higher financing costs put France’s 2027 budget under greater scrutiny. U.K. manufacturing output growth also slowed to a seven-month low as input cost pressures returned. European data and French auction, U.K. manufacturing
• Industry reporting says the U.S. NRC granted TVA a construction permit for a BWRX-300 small modular reactor at Clinch River after about 14 months of review. A construction permit advances the project but does not mean the reactor is generating electricity. Nuclear construction and permitting
• Citi raised its 12-month bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000 and its ether target from $2,240 to $3,028, citing factors including improved ETF demand. These are bank forecasts, not realized prices. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce’s resignation takes effect October 2. The proposed ADAPT crypto tax bill includes reporting exemptions for everyday payments using compliant stablecoins, but still requires legislative approval. Citi forecasts, Peirce departure, tax proposal
• Company news still produced substantial individual moves. Schwab’s 9:13 a.m. ET update reported Accenture up about 19% on results and guidance, and IBM up about 5% after introducing its on-premises AI development tool Bob. Those early-session figures are from a different time than this article’s midday snapshots. Morning company developments

What to Watch Next

• October 2, 8:30 a.m. ET, U.S. September payrolls: Expectations cited in the news range from roughly 84,000 to 94,000 additional jobs, with unemployment at 4.1%. Wages and prior-month revisions should help show whether low layoffs still accompany steady hiring, or weak hiring has broadened into more pronounced labor-market cooling. Jobs report preview
• October 4, OPEC+ meeting; October 6, SPR bid deadline: Distinguish production targets, actual exports and November-December deliveries. Sustained increases in deliverable supply would provide more direct evidence that energy cost pressures can ease. OPEC+ preview, SPR schedule
• PJM filings and company execution: Approval of cost-allocation arrangements will affect the timing of additional power procurement. Micron’s capital spending and margins, and Gemini’s paid usage, will test whether today’s demand and product announcements translate into sustained earnings.

This article is public market commentary and personal research notes. It does not constitute investment advice.