Slower hiring lifts stocks; oil falls while diesel supplies remain tight

News primarily covers the period after October 1 at 11:00:05 ET through October 2 at 11:09:32 ET, supplemented by October 2 public market coverage and Tesla’s delivery announcement. U.S. and Canadian equities and cross-asset snapshots were retrieved Friday at 12:08 ET and are intraday quotes. Asian markets are identified by their local sessions. Retrieval times are not individual trade timestamps, and bitcoin’s one-day change covers a different period from the stock session.

Today’s Market

Chips led U.S. stocks higher at midday Friday as the dollar and crude declined, but long bonds, power producers and Chinese stocks did not share the advance. The S&P 500 ETF VOO rose 0.7%, Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ gained 1.1%, and semiconductor ETF SMH climbed 2.7%. Canada’s large-company ETF XIU rose 0.6%, while U.S.-listed Chinese large-cap ETF FXI fell 2.3%. Weaker employment data eased concerns about further U.S. rate increases and supported stocks early. Yet the long-duration Treasury ETF TLT was down 0.1% by midday, so that support had not translated into a sustained long-bond rally. The dollar index fell 0.2% to 101.91, and the VIX retreated to 15.63. Morning market commentary, VOO, QQQ, SMH, XIU, FXI, TLT, dollar index, VIX

The Main Stories

Payrolls rise just 29,000, easing rate pressure but weakening confidence in growth

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, well below the roughly 84,000 to 94,000 expected in the news coverage, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. July was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August from a gain of 162,000 to 133,000. The combined downward revision was 60,000. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month over month and 3.0% year over year. These revisions weaken the earlier impression of a marked August hiring recovery. Yesterday’s low unemployment claims alone could not establish that hiring was strong. BLS September employment report

Schwab’s 9:13 ET report recorded lower Treasury yields and higher stock indexes after the release. Its early ten-year yield was 5.18%, down 5 basis points; that is an early reading, not a midday yield. My interpretation is that slower hiring and wage growth ease the need for near-term tightening, which supports equity valuations. If weaker hiring eventually depresses spending and profits, however, earnings revisions could offset that benefit. TLT’s failure to remain higher by midday limits the case for a broad easing narrative. Schwab morning report

Crude falls before Europe’s diesel talks produce actual deliveries

The midday WTI continuous-futures quote was $90.97 a barrel, down 2.0%. At the earlier 10:09 ET news timestamp, Brent was $99.25, down about 3%, and WTI was $88.92, down 4.25%. These are a continuous-contract snapshot and reported intraday prices, respectively, rather than settlements. ExxonMobil, Chevron and Occidental fell 0.07%, 0.34% and 0.55% at midday, smaller declines than crude. WTI continuous futures, Reuters intraday oil report, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Occidental

Washington wants Europe to release 120 million barrels of diesel reserves over 180 days and has threatened a possible U.S. diesel export ban. France proposed an alternative: 50 million barrels of European diesel, alongside 50 million barrels of crude from International Energy Agency members. EU countries discussed a coordinated response on October 2, with several favoring a link between further releases and a U.S. commitment against unilateral export restrictions. Both proposals remain under discussion. Releasing crude also cannot directly replace immediately usable diesel. U.S.-European reserve dispute, Reuters on European discussions

Morning coverage linked pressure on oil to improving Gulf shipments and the prospect of European diesel releases. That explanation fits the evidence better than a disappearance of war risk. China reportedly suspended October refined-fuel exports except to Hong Kong and Macau, while Russia restricted diesel exports after Ukrainian attacks on refineries. The WSJ and AP also reported deployment of a third U.S. carrier strike group and roughly 9,000 to 10,000 personnel. Deployment and arrival take time; the reports do not establish that three carriers are already in the region together. Deliverable fuel remains constrained, and military risks persist. Morning oil attribution, supply disruptions, WSJ deployment report, AP report

European data already show the cost pressure. September’s flash inflation reading was 3.8% year over year, above August’s 3.2% and expectations of about 3.6%. Energy rose 18.8% and services 3.2%. Higher energy prices erode purchasing power and complicate the central bank’s balance between growth and inflation. Barclays raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $20 to $115 a barrel, citing inventory depletion and tight near-term supply. A bank forecast can coexist with today’s price decline. Release volumes, delivery dates and actual export recovery will test whether the pressure is easing. Eurostat September flash estimate, Barclays forecast coverage

Tesla beats delivery expectations but misses the storage forecast

Tesla rose 5.16% at midday. Its October 2 announcement, checked as a supplement to the news file, reported third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 vehicles and production of 464,391. The company-compiled analyst consensus published September 29 was 461,974 total deliveries, putting the result about 5.3% above expectations. Deliveries also exceeded the second quarter’s 480,126. This offers a fundamental explanation for the advance, although the announcement page supplies no publication time, so the available evidence cannot precisely separate the moves before and after it. Tesla delivery announcement, company-compiled analyst consensus, Tesla quote

Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, below the same consensus survey’s 15.9 GWh. The release therefore did not beat expectations across every business. Deliveries and deployments leave average selling prices, margins and earnings unanswered. Full third-quarter results are due after the market closes on October 21. Delivery release and earnings schedule, storage expectations

Chips and Dell advance while power producers and Micron lag

Semiconductors diverged internally: Arm gained 7.94%, Broadcom 3.53%, TSMC 3.04%, AMD 2.95% and Nvidia 2.24%, while Micron fell 1.43%. Morning coverage said Morgan Stanley reinstated Nvidia as its top semiconductor pick after meeting Jensen Huang. That is a specific supportive development, but it cannot explain every chip company’s gain. No reliable new announcement or independent catalyst was found for Arm’s relative strength. Morning company coverage, Arm announcements, Arm quote, Broadcom, TSMC, AMD, Nvidia, Micron

Dell gained 4.00% and Vertiv 2.60%, alongside a new infrastructure project. JERA, Dell and British developer RHAELM signed a memorandum of understanding on October 1 for an AI data center of roughly 400 MW beside a power station in Chiba, Japan. Total investment is planned at more than $15 billion, with phased operations in 2028 and full capacity in 2029. JERA would provide land and electricity, Dell rack-level infrastructure, and RHAELM development, operations and financing. Nearby generation may ease grid-connection constraints, but the project remains at the memorandum stage. Its total investment is not Dell’s order revenue. Reuters project report, Nikkei details, Dell, Vertiv

U.S. power producers weakened: Vistra fell 1.27%, Constellation 1.10% and NRG 1.56%. Additional public coverage still pointed to the existing PJM procurement delay and differences in contract execution, without establishing a new event that explains today’s declines. A Japanese project may create future equipment demand without immediately generating new revenue for U.S. power plants. Exposure to AI infrastructure alone does not imply synchronized stock performance. Power contracts and PJM background, Vistra, Constellation, NRG

AI liability measures advance while Anthropic prepares for a possible listing

Senators Hawley and Murphy introduced the AI Agent Accountability Act on October 1. It would apply criminal and civil liability under the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act to AI developers and operators in circumstances involving known or reasonably foreseeable computer-intrusion harm. California Attorney General Bonta also confirmed an investigative subpoena to OpenAI over cybersecurity risks and the Hugging Face intrusion. The bill still requires passage, and the subpoena is an investigative step. Neither constitutes an enacted new law or a finding of wrongdoing. Hawley’s official announcement, Reuters on the California investigation

The spread of offensive capabilities provides context. October 1 coverage of Anthropic’s late-September report said open-source GLM-5.3 completed 50 successful exploits in 410 attempts in a particular test, compared with 56 for Mythos Preview. Those are Anthropic’s test results, not proof that the models have equal overall capabilities, but they suggest such capabilities may become more accessible. My interpretation is that liability rules and safety validation will affect how models are delivered and how enterprises evaluate them. Today’s technology rally does not resolve those longer-term questions. Report findings and test scope

On financing, Bloomberg reported that Anthropic plans to meet potential investors on October 14, could begin an IPO roadshow in the week of November 9, and aims to list before Thanksgiving at a valuation of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. Separate reporting on a confidential prospectus described a $42 billion chip-leasing financing arrangement with Broadcom and a dispute over platform revenue-sharing and revenue recognition. These dates, valuations and financing details remain attributed reports, not a completed offering or realized revenue. Their significance for suppliers also depends on final financing and contract execution. Coverage of Bloomberg’s report, prospectus reporting

Hong Kong declines as targeted support fails to restore confidence

The Hang Seng fell as much as about 3% intraday when Hong Kong reopened after a holiday, led lower by financial companies. FXI was down 2.3% at U.S. midday. On September 30, the People’s Bank of China cut its one-year pledged supplementary lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%, alongside higher relending quotas and subsidies for first-time homebuyers. Reports linked the selling to disappointment with the scale of support and the preceding rise in U.S. yields. The measures ease some financing burdens, but investors are still waiting for stronger evidence of improving demand. Hong Kong intraday report, policy and market response, FXI

Mainland A-share markets were closed, so the CSI 300 decline repeated in some coverage cannot be presented as an October 2 trading result. Reports about permission to purchase new Nvidia chips also lack official confirmation and do not establish an explanation for Chinese chipmakers’ performance that day.

Crypto custody rules enter consultation while Coinbase trails bitcoin

The SEC proposed crypto-asset custody rules on October 1 that would allow registered investment advisers and regulated funds to use state-chartered trust companies, with limited self-custody subject to cybersecurity conditions. A 60-day comment period follows Federal Register publication. The framework remains a proposal. It could broaden compliant custody options and alter competition among service providers, but it is too early to identify a particular trading platform as an established beneficiary. SEC proposal announcement

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.65 billion in September, and ether ETFs $832.4 million. September 30, however, brought outflows of $148.7 million and $59.6 million respectively. At midday, bitcoin was around $85,293, up 0.5% over the data provider’s one-day interval, while Coinbase fell 3.78% and Strategy 0.62%. Fund flows and coin prices cover different periods. Public material also did not establish a reliable independent cause for Coinbase’s decline. With October 2 still underway, a daily flow figure lacking a clearly verified timestamp cannot be treated as a completed-session result. September ETF totals, month-end outflows, bitcoin, Coinbase, Strategy

Also Worth Knowing

• Canada’s July GDP was flat month over month, while June growth was revised from 0.3% to 0.4%. Manufacturing declined 0.9% in July and construction grew 1.3%. August’s estimated 0.2% growth is preliminary. Macklem’s remarks on unpredictable U.S. trade policy came from his September 21 speech, rather than a new rate signal today. Canadian GDP coverage
• G20 trade ministers made little substantive progress on the U.S. trade framework. Washington’s proposed anti-forced-labor tariff framework would cover 99% of imports and met resistance from several countries. That is proposed coverage, not a 99% tariff rate or an enacted policy. G20 negotiations
• September 30 reporting recirculated during this news window said DeepSeek and Huawei released open-source tools for Ascend chips and expanded native TileLang support. This may ease software migration, but it does not establish that the CUDA ecosystem has been displaced. Unverified claims about large chip deployments are not a basis for that conclusion. Tool-release coverage roundup
• U.S. natural gas faces different conditions from global refined fuels. The EIA’s September forecast put end-October gas inventories near 4 trillion cubic feet, the second-highest seasonal level. LNG Canada reportedly plans to proceed with phase two, doubling annual capacity from 14 million to 28 million tonnes, with operations expected in the early 2030s. American Gas Association October 1 brief
• Uranium industry coverage quoted long-term contracts at $96 per pound and spot at about $90. These are different market measures. The quoted price of the Sprott physical uranium trust is also distinct from uranium’s spot price. Uranium market coverage
• Third-quarter crypto security statistics covered 247 incidents worth about $1.26 billion, including roughly $387.5 million from Bitget. Aggregated incident values should not automatically be read as final losses after recoveries. Security incident totals
• The latest report on Citi gives twelve-month targets of $181,000 for bitcoin and $5,400 for ether, updating the different targets used in yesterday’s brief. Citi also cited a bitcoin adoption-model estimate of about $83,000. A price target and a model valuation address different questions, and both remain research judgments. Updated Citi forecasts

What to Watch Next

• At the October 4 OPEC+ meeting, expectations are for unchanged November production targets. Watch the formal decision and volumes that can actually be exported. European reserve talks still need release quantities, dates and clarity on any U.S. export commitment. OPEC+ and supply outlook, European discussions
• U.S. auctions of three-, ten- and thirty-year Treasuries follow on October 6, 7 and 8. Demand at higher yields will help test whether the early rate relief following weak employment data can last. Treasury auction calendar
• Anthropic’s reported October 14 investor meeting may clarify revenue recognition, infrastructure obligations and listing conditions. Tesla’s October 21 results after the close will test how its delivery beat translates into earnings. Anthropic plans, Tesla earnings schedule

This article is public market commentary and personal research notes. It does not constitute investment advice.